A look at the metal markets in 2021

by David Fleschen

What almost all metal markets have in common is that next year they are likely to show a mostly quite large surplus supply. The expected recovery in demand, which in many cases will not yet return to its pre-crisis level in the opinion of numerous market observers, will probably not change this. It should also be possible to expand production in a normalizing environment. From a fundamental point of view, experts therefore believe that the high metal prices cannot be justified. However, it can be assumed that the good mood on the financial markets will initially continue to support prices.

Positive news in the fight against the corona virus is likely to play a major role here. However, we believe that the positive element of surprise should subside as the year progresses and the euphoria of market participants should subside, so that we expect a correction in metal prices in the second half of the year. At the same time, we assume that this year's tailwind from currencies - especially the US dollar and Chinese yuan - will weaken or even reverse. The US dollar should no longer depreciate significantly and the appreciation of the yuan should be stopped.

Source: Commerzbank Research, Photo: Fotolia


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