Copper: Supply deficit of 126 thousand tonnes until end of July

by David Fleschen

According to the International Copper Study Group, the copper market showed a supply deficit of 126 thousand tonnes in the first seven months of the year, seasonally adjusted it was even 175 thousand tonnes. The deficit thus climbs higher: in August, a deficit of a good 70 thousand tonnes had been reported for the first half of the year.

However, the figure is put into perspective in two respects: 1. in July, the deficit of 30 thousand tonnes was much smaller than in June; seasonally adjusted, the market was even in balance. 2. 2. production is higher than in the previous year due to new mining projects, even though disappointing production figures from Chile and Peru had a dampening effect recently. In the first seven months, the increase was still 3%. Against this backdrop, we assume that the situation on the copper market will ease at least temporarily with the expected slowdown in demand due to the economic situation. We continue to expect a decline in copper prices in the fourth quarter.

Source: Commerzbank Research, Photo: Fotolia

Go back