Assofermet: Scrap markets end 2025 on firm tone as CBAM dominates outlook

Italian metals association Assofermet reports that December brought little movement in European scrap markets, but confirmed a modest upward trend heading into the new year.

Ferrous scrap: quiet start to 2026

During the first half of December, prices remained largely unchanged amid stable but subdued demand from steelworks. Limited availability of domestic scrap continued to be a key factor, reflecting weak activity in fabrication workshops and the broader industrial economy.

Toward the end of the month, small price increases of around €5 per tonne were recorded, signaling a slightly firmer tone.

The year 2026 has begun quietly for steel producers, with many plants only restarting operations after mid-January. Inventories are currently comfortable, with significant order backlogs from domestic traders and numerous vessels waiting to unload.

Although producers have shown a cautious willingness to accept modest price increases, the outlook remains uncertain. Demand for finished steel products continues to be lackluster, and the current optimism could quickly fade if production levels slow further.

“Scarcity of domestic scrap inflows remains the primary market driver, regardless of actual mill demand,” Assofermet noted.

International markets: Turkey and Europe edge higher

On international markets, December saw a continuation of the gradual upward trend. Turkish import prices for scrap from the US, UK, and Northern Europe rose by around USD 15 per tonne, while Spain reported increases of €10–15/t. Germany and France followed the same pattern, despite some logistical challenges.

Asian markets, by contrast, were less dynamic. Demand in India and Indonesia remained muted, with buyers largely resisting higher price levels and limiting purchases to replacement volumes only.

CBAM becomes the key variable

Across all segments, attention is increasingly focused on the full implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which entered its final phase on January 1, 2026.

Assofermet expects January to be dominated by efforts to assess the real impact of the new rules, particularly the additional costs likely to affect imported materials. Many negotiations have been effectively frozen while market participants evaluate the regulatory framework.

Inox and special grades: selective activity

Stainless steel scrap prices continued to firm in December and early January, supported by better sentiment in Europe. However, the superalloy segment remained sluggish, with slow stock turnover and only isolated demand in niche applications such as high-speed steels.

Cast iron: stable but cautious

The European market for cast iron remained largely unchanged through December. Uncertainty surrounding CBAM cost calculations paralysed many negotiations, and production activity was minimal due to extended holiday shutdowns.

On international markets, Turkish buyers paid slightly more for Russian material, while US prices for Ukrainian and Brazilian pig iron rose by USD 5–10/t, albeit on low volumes.

Ferroalloys: trade restrictions curb activity

Purchasing of ferroalloys has been further constrained by EU safeguard measures introduced in November 2025, combined with CBAM requirements. These factors have effectively frozen spot activity, limiting transactions to material already available in stock.

Outlook

Overall, Assofermet describes a market characterized by low volumes, cautious sentiment, and a regulatory-driven agenda. The coming months will depend less on traditional supply-demand dynamics and more on how quickly companies can adapt to the new CBAM environment.

“Future planning is now dictated largely by the regulatory model rather than by real market demand,” the association concluded.

Source: Assofermet, Photo: Fotolia