EU Antidumping Probe adds uncertainty to cold rolled steel market

A new antidumping investigation by the European Commission could lead to significant additional costs for importers of cold rolled flat steel products from five key third-country suppliers. This is the main takeaway from a current analysis published by the steel market intelligence provider MEPS International.

According to MEPS, the Commission launched the probe on 18 September following a formal complaint by EUROFER, the European Steel Association. The investigation covers the period from July 2024 to June 2025 and targets India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam. Provisional measures could be imposed within seven months, and dumping margins of 10% to 50% are reportedly under discussion.

This new proceeding comes as importers are already under pressure from tightening safeguard quotas and the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Many EU buyers are delaying new orders due to continued uncertainty around emissions benchmarks for CBAM, which will take effect on 1 January 2026. MEPS reports that some large mills and traders have started to include estimated CBAM costs – currently calculated at €40 to €70 per tonne – in their quotes.

Safeguards already curbing imports

The countries named in the investigation accounted for nearly 68% of cold rolled flat steel imports into the EU in 2024, according to MEPS data. But since April 1, when revised safeguard measures introduced 13% volume caps for “other countries,” import volumes have already dropped. After a strong first quarter, cold rolled imports fell by almost 40% year-on-year in April and May.

Only India has its own country-specific quota in this segment. The other four countries exceeded their Q3 caps, and MEPS expects allocations for Q4 (starting October 1) to fill rapidly — possibly the last low-duty period before CBAM raises the cost base for all third-country suppliers.

Demand outlook remains weak

At the same time, market conditions in Europe remain fragile. MEPS highlights that the apparent steel consumption forecast for 2025 was recently revised down by EUROFER to –0.9%, marking a fourth year of decline. Cold rolled coil prices reflect this: the low end of the MEPS Europe average CRC price was down 9.3% in the first nine months of the year. July marked a nine-month price low before a slight recovery in recent weeks.

While the Commission continues to roll out its trade defence toolbox, MEPS notes that uncertainty surrounding trade policy, demand, and environmental regulation is weighing heavily on import activity. The convergence of antidumping duties, CBAM, and safeguard constraints could significantly reshape European sourcing strategies in the coming months.

Source: MEPS, Photo: Fotolia