Global steel demand to stabilize in 2025, modest rebound expected in 2026

by David Fleschen

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), forecasting that global steel demand will remain stable in 2025 at around 1,750 million tonnes (Mt), before rising by 1.3% to 1,773 Mt in 2026.

“Bottoming out in 2025”

According to Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee and Chief Economist of the Spanish Steel Producers Association (UNESID), global demand appears to be bottoming out after several challenging years.

“Despite trade tensions and uncertainty, we are cautiously optimistic that steel demand will stabilize in 2025 and return to moderate growth in 2026,” Hidalgo de Calcerrada said.

He cited continued resilience in the global economy, steady infrastructure investment, and expected easing of financing conditions as key factors supporting this outlook.

Regional dynamics

  • China: Steel demand is expected to decline by around 2.0% in 2025 and a further 1.0% in 2026, as the property market downturn continues but gradually stabilizes.

  • Developing economies (ex-China): Robust growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026 is projected, led by India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

  • India: Demand is forecast to grow by around 9% across 2025–2026, with 2026 consumption estimated at 75 Mt higher than in 2020.

  • Africa: After years of stagnation, demand is rising again, growing 5.5% annually since 2023 to reach around 41 Mt in 2025, supported by stronger macroeconomic stability and infrastructure expansion.

  • Central & South America: Demand is expected to increase by 5.5% in 2025, driven by recovery in Argentina and continued growth in Brazil’s construction sector.

  • Developed economies: Demand is forecast to fall 0.5% in 2025, marking a fourth year of decline, before recovering by 1.5% in 2026 as the EU and US markets turn upward.

Regional highlights

  • EU + UK: Demand is set to grow 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, supported by infrastructure and defence spending, lower inflation, and improving credit conditions.

  • United States: Growth of 1.8% is forecast for both 2025 and 2026, driven by infrastructure programs and residential construction, with potential upside from new federal stimulus initiatives.

  • Japan & Korea: Demand is expected to remain subdued through 2026.

Outlook summary

Worldsteel’s latest forecast points to a fragile but improving demand environment after years of volatility. While trade tensions and high production costs continue to weigh on the global steel sector, infrastructure investments and stronger domestic markets in developing regions are expected to anchor a gradual recovery in 2026.

Source: Worldsteel, Photo: Fotolia