High US stainless prices keep imports competitive, MEPS says

US stainless steel prices remain among the highest globally, keeping the market attractive for exporters even after the introduction of 50% Section 232 tariffs, according to an analysis by MEPS.

In January, the low end of US transaction price range for grade 304 cold rolled coil stood at USD 3,247 per tonne. This was USD 845 per tonne above the average domestic price in Asia and USD 530 per tonne higher than the European average. MEPS’s US research respondents report that importers are still being offered material from some overseas sources at significantly lower prices than domestic supply.

Commenting in the latest Stainless Steel Market Outlook episode of MEPS’s Speaking of Steel podcast, analyst Michelle Kirton said: “While the prices remain at the elevated levels that they're currently at in the US market, then, imports are going to stay competitive – even with the 50% duty.”

Despite this price gap, MEPS data shows that US stainless steel imports have continued to fall after more than a year of trade policy uncertainty. In late 2024, many buyers accelerated shipments in anticipation of tighter import restrictions following Donald Trump’s return to office and his pledge to strengthen Section 232 tariffs. This led to a temporary surge in imports, with volumes of all stainless steel products rising by 24.5% year-on-year, or 57,296 tonnes, in the first quarter of 2025.

Within months of President Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, Section 232 duties were reinstated at 25% for all countries, including those that had previously benefited from exemptions such as South Korea, Mexico and the European Union. Between April and June 2025, import volumes fell back towards the 2024 monthly average of around 85,000 tonnes. Market participants told MEPS that, even at that duty level, imports often remained cheaper than domestic material, prompting continued overseas purchasing.

The US government’s decision to double the tariff to 50% on June 3, 2025, proved a stronger deterrent. The increase, which applied to all countries except the UK, forced buyers with cargoes in transit to renegotiate prices, divert shipments or cancel orders. In the same period, North American Stainless announced a significant price increase effective July 1, 2025, which market participants described as one of the largest single reductions in functional discounts for grade 304 cold rolled coil in recent years.

According to the latest International Trade Administration data cited by MEPS, US stainless steel imports fell by around 23% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, a decline of 58,865 tonnes. Cold rolled sheet recorded the steepest drop, down 33% or 23,700 tonnes, while hot rolled plate, cold drawn bars and hot rolled bars also saw double-digit percentage declines. Volumes from Taiwan, Indonesia, Mexico, France and Belgium fell markedly.

MEPS expects the downward trend in imports to continue in 2026. Although domestic producers have regained some market share and enquiries have increased, short delivery lead times point to ample supply, particularly after North American Stainless commissioned a new cold rolling line adding around 200,000 tonnes of annual capacity.

With distributors’ inventories still adequate and demand expectations broadly in line with 2025 levels, MEPS suggests that base prices are unlikely to rise materially until order books strengthen and lead times begin to extend.

Source: MEPS, Photo: Fotolia