High US steel prices and record shipments boost domestic mills

US steelmakers are benefiting from a combination of high domestic prices and strong shipment volumes, with several leading producers reporting record deliveries and expecting favourable market conditions to continue into the second half of 2026, according to MEPS International.

Nucor and Steel Dynamics both achieved record steel shipments during the second quarter. Nucor shipped around 7.1 million short tons from its steel mills, marking its second consecutive quarterly record, while Steel Dynamics reported shipments of 3.74 million short tons.

Cleveland-Cliffs also expects a significant increase, forecasting record third-quarter shipments of more than 4.3 million short tons. Gerdau meanwhile reported record shipments of common long products from its North American operations.

“With US steel production rising and the US market commanding the highest prices in the world, US steel mills are enjoying their best financial results since 2022,” said MEPS US steel market analyst Laura Hodges.

HRC prices up 77% since early 2025

Higher selling prices have been a major contributor to the improved results. MEPS assessed US hot-rolled coil at around $1,150 per short ton in August, compared with $650 in January 2025 – an increase of 77%.

Trade measures have helped underpin the domestic market. The US restored the full 25% Section 232 tariff on steel imports in March 2025 before increasing the rate to 50% in June of that year. Major US steelmakers have cited trade policy as an important factor supporting their recent performance.

Nippon Steel has also raised its earnings expectations for U.S. Steel, pointing to higher steel prices, operational improvements and the ramp-up of new production capacity.

Autumn outages could tighten supply

Scheduled maintenance could provide additional price support during the coming months. Market participants surveyed by MEPS expect at least 600,000 short tons of coil production to be lost between September and November, including outages affecting U.S. Steel’s Gary Works hot strip mill and Big River Steel.

The outages are expected to coincide with the usual seasonal weakening in demand. However, mills indicated that elevated prices have already been secured in a number of contracts extending through the third quarter and beyond.

Risks to the outlook remain. Collective bargaining agreements between the United Steelworkers and U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs expired on September 1, although both companies agreed to 30-day extensions while negotiations continue.

Potential changes to Section 232 tariffs represent another uncertainty. Mexico and Canada are seeking relief from current US steel tariffs, and MEPS noted that any substantial reduction could increase import competition and put pressure on domestic prices.

Source: MEPS, Photo. Fotolia