Little reaction to mixed China data

by David Fleschen

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China released economic data this morning, which turned out mixed. Accordingly, GDP grew by 6.0% in the third quarter, slightly slower than expected. According to our economists, GDP growth in the fourth quarter could even fall below the psychological threshold of 6.0%. While this would not be a complete surprise, it would confirm the downward trend of the Chinese economy. The economic data for September, however, were slightly better. For example, industrial production has recovered from its very weak previous month's value, rising more than expected by 5.8%. Fixed asset investment increased by 5.4%. Metal prices have barely responded to Chinese data in early trading. Apparently, the market participants are not yet agreed whether the glass is now half empty or half full.

The NBS has also published data on steel and aluminum production. According to the report, 82.8 million tons of steel were produced in September (2.76 million tons per day), slightly less than in the previous month, but more than in the previous year. The authorities ordered production cuts ahead of the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China to provide better air. These should, in our opinion, be made up for again. Aluminum production has recovered from the weather-related losses. In September, 2.9 million or 96.67 thousand tons were produced per day. This was the largest amount in three months and a good 4% more than last year.
Source: Commerzbank Research, Photo: Fotolia

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