Resourex: Cautious optimism in the steel market as Q4 begins

After months of hesitation, Europe’s steel market appears to be regaining a fragile balance. According to the October RX® Review & Outlook published by the Vienna-based start-up Resourex, trading activity picked up modestly in September, with volumes rising and volatility easing.

The company’s in-house RX®metrics indicator – which tracks sentiment and liquidity within a 120-170 corridor – has returned to its mid-range. “Not a breakout, but at least a heartbeat,” notes the analysis.

Defensive production and rising costs

Production in Germany remains roughly 3 % below last year’s levels, reflecting the sector’s defensive stance. High energy and CO₂ costs continue to weigh on margins, while logistics remain a challenge. Many mills have adjusted by scaling output instead of chasing low-margin orders.

Policy headwinds shape trade flows

On the political front, market uncertainty persists. The EU is considering tighter import safeguards, the US has doubled tariffs on certain steel imports to 50 %, and Europe’s largest producers are reassessing their “green steel” roadmaps amid rising hydrogen costs.

Resourex interprets these developments as signs of an increasingly fragmented global market: fewer low-cost imports, narrower spreads, and a shifting trade balance between continents.

Outlook: Sideways trend with selective upside

Despite the headwinds, spot prices appear to be stabilizing, and buyer interest is returning. “If policy support strengthens and demand from automotive and construction holds up, the steel curve could finally bend upward,” the report concludes.

Until then, the company advises market participants to rely on “patience, precision and a bit of nerve” – what Resourex calls the trader’s trilogy.

Resourex will present its automated trading and analytics platform RX® at the upcoming Blechexpo 2025 (Hall 10, Stand 10201, 21–24 October, Stuttgart). The company specializes in digital tools that bring transparency and speed to metal trading and supply chain management.

Source: Resourex, Photo: Fotolia